Finale will not be a surprise if she causes one in the ten-runner aged Maiden Stakes over a mile of Southwell fibresand today, Hughie Morrison trains this once-raced Holy Roman Emperor filly.
Morrison is a law unto himself, very shrewd, but tricky to assess, and though Finale achieved plenty when seven lengths sixth to Almoner over seven furlongs of Kempton polytrack earlier this month, punters can’t be guaranteed a 100 per cent effort; inexperience might be an issue.
Ability to act on the deep stuff comes into question but Hughie has plenty of winners at this Nottinghamshire course and he’ll know about the prospects of victory given moderate, disappointing, opposition.
For instance Warm Words and Vantage Point, trained by Ralph Beckett and John Gosden respectively, are shallow judged on poor recent efforts but will corner all pre-betting exchanges. None of the others has the remotest chance on my time-handicap.
Realistically this is the perfect scenario for a surprise result, only Finale can supply it and so let us take a chance, at good odds. Certainly one to follow whatever happens and, incidentally, Frankie Norton wont have been booked without good reason!
Rest of this six-race programme has already been consigned to my too difficult tray but Zero Grand looks a solid betting proposition in the Novices’ Hurdle over two and a half miles of soft Plumpton where Brendan Powell replaces an inexperienced conditional. I’m not surprised!
Zero Grand was ridden negatively in a similar race at Chepstow three weeks ago, running well below a previous career-best mark. Hopefully Powell will make a difference.
Heavy is forecast for Ayr where Strong Economy attempts to go one better in the Maiden Hurdle over two and three-quarter miles in which a 5lbs conditional allowance must be at issue. We will be focusing on novices/maidens for the next three months because at this time of year jumping is usually profitable for punting.
Ayr, 10.50 Strong Economy
Southwell, 11.30 Finale (e.w)
11.45 Zero Grand (nap).
