Today the COP 22 United Nations climate change talks kick off in Marrakech, Morocco. Tomorrow the US presidential election decides if a climate denier assumes the presidency or if the US continues to be a Most Valuable Player in climate change science, policy and funding.
It is in Marrakech that the worldʼs leaders try to tackle the single greatest threat facing humankind. This threat is not Donald Trump, but human caused climate change. Nonetheless, if Donald Trump is elected the doomsday clock might move one minute closer to midnight.
Trump is on all our minds. Much of the opposition to him is centered on immigration and womenʼs rights. I am no fan of illegal immigration but I do believe in an open world, in which talented and hardworking people can legally move across borders to contribute to global societies. Without it, great societies have died, smothered of new ideas and talent.
The worldʼs countries are roughly divided between countries that citizens abandon because they fail to deliver a minimum quality of life, and more appealing, successful societies that import people, talent and innovation. Many Trinidadians and Tobagonians depend on this open world to flee poverty, crime and lack of opportunity of which the single resource state is but a symptom. We see it as a right to emigrate, a survival strategy, but this comes at a cost to our own country.
If it is true that 75 per cent of university graduatesʼ first career move is to leave, then a Trump presidency might reduce T&Tʼs brain drain. Maybe a good thing? I have no idea if the 75 per cent figure is accurate, but I do know that we need our best and our brightest to stay here and develop our own society, however much of an individual sacrifice that is.
It is a contrarian view of emigration (note that I use the word emigration, and not immigration) that is not in sync with the main concerns about a Trump presidency. This hypothetical benefit, cannot weigh up against the negatives of the closed society that Trump stands for.
My main concern is the threat Trump poses to the effort to turn back climate change and what this means for renewable energy technology. Trump has called climate change “bull----”. He says that the planet is “freezing” instead of warming. His climate change opinions are anti-science, anti-factual. He believes it is an elaborate Chinese ploy to undermine American industry.
If elected, he vows to scrap the Paris climate change agreement, which went in to force last week Friday, and stop spending on climate change research. The Paris agreement aims to limit human caused climate change to two degrees centigrade and phase out the burning of all fossil fuels such as coal, natural gas and oil.
This might be music to the ears of some in T&T, who hope that a resurgence of the fossil fuel industry will save us from economic decline. They resist the new economy because they have a stake in it, or lack the imagination to understand it. They are our local Trumps.
Trump has said that the fossil fuel industry will thrive under him. He intends to roll back regulations that limit greenhouse gas emissions and make dirty coal king again. If Trump is elected and carries out these plans, it is difficult to see how the United States will compete in a world economy that is increasingly driven by research and development of renewable energy technology.
Renewable energy attracted more investment and created more jobs than the fossil fuel industry in 2015. This trend has continued in 2016. It is a global industry that Trump cannot stop but he can blunt the cutting edge of the United Statesʼ renewable energy industry.
What can bad policy do? Domestic US policy kept gas prices at the fuel pump low. This nearly killed Detroit car makers. Cheap gas encouraged US auto makers to roll gas guzzlers off the assembly line that could not compete with fuel efficient foreign cars built in countries that taxed gas; or as I would say, gave gas a proper value that reflects some of the environmental costs of fossil fuels. Detroit never recovered. It is not unreasonable to think that Trump can do this to the entire US renewable industry.
Cutting edge industries such as the self-driving Tesla electric vehicles, which is sets world standards for electric vehicles, is threatened by Trumpʼs policies. Tesla is a flagship of the new economy, but there are thousands of other businesses like it. It is the future of U. industry and US knowledge that is on the line.
In a policy environment that favours fossil fuels, US manufacturers will be at a disadvantage globally. Like with the Detroit car industry, policy will steer technology and investment towards products that will not be able less able to compete globally. The USA spends more than any country on research and development, produces the most scientific papers, produces the most Nobel Prize winners and has the most scientists.
Forget about the high number of people in the US who are anti-science, climate change deniers. The world cannot do without US climate change leadership.
Hilary Clinton offers policy continuity. It is not enough but it is not rollback either. President Obama is the climate change president for pushing CO2 emission reduction policy. He is also the president under whom the United States fossil fuel industry boomed like never before. Most of this is due to natural gas fracking, which he did little to prevent. In fact, he takes the credit for this. Under Obama both renewables and fossil fuels thrive.
Obamaʼs predecessor, Bush Jr, was accused of being in Big Oilʼs back pocket. This did not stop the development of renewables. History shows that renewable energy technology cannot be stopped. On the one hand it is driven by policy, which speeds along development but something new has happened: the market has taken over. Electricity from renewable sources are competitive with natural gas, and even coal, in many markets.
Mooreʼs law applies to renewable energy. Capacity doubles every 18 months, prices come down. Oil and gas prices go the other way. Long-term, fossil fuel prices have risen by three per cent per annum and reserves are harder to get at. The supply and demand market has taken over, renewables cannot be stopped, but they can be slowed down.
Time is of the essence. Climate is changing so rapidly that we are on course for a three degree centigrade temperature rise. Research on the effect of melting polar ice sheets and sea level rise shows that 1-2 degree global resulted in 20 foot sea level rise. We are already at nearly 1.5 degree C. Regardless of who becomes president we will have climate change, sea level rise and renewable energy.
Trump cannot stop the market, but he can cool it. To deal with these challenges we need technology that removes greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere. It will take decades. In the beginning there will be little return on investment unless this research is driven by policy.
This is why the US presidency is so important. Trump has announced that he will roll back renewables and promote coal. He endangers both the economy of the US and the global climatic system. Letʼs hope the United States chooses for science and the new economy.